Access restricted to higher education institution's students and staff
master's thesis
Predicting tourist arrivals to Krka NP by usig Google trends;Granger causality approach

Dino Junaković
Metadata
TitlePREDVIĐANJE DOLAZAKA POSJETITELJA U NP KRKA; GRANGEROVA ANALIZA UZROČNOSTI
AuthorDino Junaković
Mentor(s)Ana Perišić (thesis advisor)
AbstractEkonomske vremenske serije većinom se objavljuju sa značajnim vremenskim odmakom što predstavlja značajan problem za stručnjake koji se bave ekonomskim modeliranjem. Stoga je praćenje ekonomskih trendova u trenutku njihova nastajanja iznimno privlačno istraživačima. Jedan od korisnih alata u prediktivnom modeliranju je Google trend alat koji omogućuje pristup dnevnim i tjednim podacima o učestalosti pretraživanja pojedine ključne riječi, predmeta i fraza u određenom vremenskom razdoblju. U ovom radu analizirana je prediktivna moć podataka o internetskom pretraživanjudobivenih putem Google Trenda u modeliranju turističke potražnje u Naconalnom parku Krka. Ispitano je uzrokuju li u Grangerovom smislu podaci o internetskom pretraživanju dolaske turista u Nacionalni park Krka. Rezultati pokazuju kako varijabla Google trends uzrokuje u Grangerovom smislu varijablu Dolasci posjetitelja u NP Krka za različite pomake. Dakle, rezultati analiza ide u prilog studijama koje ističu vrijednost informacija dobivenih putem alata Google trend, te se može zaključiti kako podaci o internetskom pretraživanju mogu poslužiti u predviđanju dolazaka posjetitelja u Nacionalni park Krka.
Keywordsprediction tourist arrivals Krka National Park Granger causality Google trends
Parallel title (English)Predicting tourist arrivals to Krka NP by usig Google trends;Granger causality approach
GranterVeleučilište u Šibeniku
Lower level organizational unitsMenadžment
PlaceŠibenik
StateCroatia
Scientific field, discipline, subdisciplineSOCIAL SCIENCES
Economics
Business Mathematics and Statistics
Study programme typeprofessional
Study levelspecialist graduate
Study programmeManagement
Academic title abbreviationSruč.spec.oec.
Genremaster's thesis
Language Croatian
Defense date2016-09-29
Parallel abstract (English)Official statistics releases are usually released with a certain time lag. This can cause problems in economic modelling, especially for experts monitoring economic trends. Thus, forecasting the economy's performance in real time (nowcasting) is an interesting research field. A useful tool in nowcasting is Google trends. Google trends is an online tool that provides access to daily and weekly data on the frequency of individual search keywords, subjects and phrases in a given time period. The aim of this paper is to examine the extent to which information obtained through the Google trends can serve the purpose of predicting tourist arrivals in Krka National Park. The paper examines Granger causality between Google trends and tourist arrivals. The results showed that Google trends variable Granger cause variable tourist arrivals for different lags. Thus, the results of the analysis support studies that highlight the value of the information obtained through the Google trend. Moreover, it can be concluded that data on internet search can be useful in predicting tourist arrivals in Krka National Park.
Parallel keywords (Croatian)predikcija dolasci turista Nacionalni park Krka Grangerova uzročnost Google Trends
Resource typetext
Access conditionAccess restricted to higher education institution's students and staff
Terms of useAll rights reserved
URN:NBNhttps://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:143:369436
CommitterNives Paškov Milošević